january-february 2008

2008 Outlook

The 2007 Congressional season began amidst optimism as a new Congress took its seat and set about delivering on its campaign promises.  Quickly, however, lack of progress and seeming deadlock led to dismay, and 2008 begins with no such buzz of excitement or expectation. 

Given the excitement generated by this year’s presidential race, the national conventions and the possibility of historical changes in the government, Members of Congress – most also facing their own re-election campaigns – are likely to be greatly distracted from the business of legislation, further reducing the likelihood of significant action. 

Domestic poverty, ecology and environment

by Leslie G Woods

Poverty and Economic Policy

Housing: The House passed the National Affordable Housing Trust Fund Act of 2007, HR 2895 last October.  The companion bill in the Senate, S 2523, is in the Senate Banking Committee.  This is the first time in several years that passing this bill has been a possibility.  If enacted, the National Housing Trust Fund would create permanent, dedicated funding to build, rehabilitate and preserve 1.5 million units of housing for the lowest income families over the next 10 years

Child Nutrition:  The Child Nutrition and WIC Reauthorization Act will come up for reauthorization next year, but work on this bill will begin late in 2008.  This law promotes children’s health through nutrition, and includes programs such as School Meals (breakfast and lunch), fresh fruits and vegetables and the Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC), which provides education and access to nutritious diets for pregnant women and small children.

Farm Bill:  The current short-term Farm Bill extension expires March 15, 2008, so Senate, House and White House negotiators are working to complete the authorization of the Farm Bill by that date.  Both chambers passed farm bills in 2007, but neither bill contained the kind of reform called for by General Assembly policy.  It is unlikely that current negotiations will yield farm bill reform, and advocates are concerned that gains for the Food Stamp program, won in the House-passed bill, will be omitted from the final deal.

Fiscal Year 2009 Budget:  The budget process started when the President released his proposal on February 4.  This year, his budget includes a $400 billion deficit, large cuts to programs that serve those in need and that build national infrastructure, harsh treatment of state and local governments, tax cuts for the wealthiest income earners and a large increase to the defense budget, not counting funding for foreign wars.  Congress will use the President’s proposal as a starting point for crafting its own Budget Resolution, which it must produce by April 15. With the Budget Resolution, or spending blueprint, in hand, congressional appropriators will craft budgets for federal departments and agencies, bringing appropriations bills forward throughout the fall.  Technically, appropriations should be complete by October 1, the start of the new fiscal year.  Many expect the appropriations process to drag into 2009, but polls and expectations about the outcome of the Presidential race will probably drive Congress to finish this year’s budget on time.

Health Care

Medicare and Medicaid:  The health care programs that serve older adults and poor and vulnerable communities may face a challenge this year.  The President’s budget proposal includes deep cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, shifting many costs to state budgets already strained by recession and the housing crisis.  Further, the Administration has issued several regulatory changes and directives that, in effect, cut funding for these programs.  This tactic enables the President to make policy changes without the consent of Congress.  Unless Congress takes active steps in the budget process and in enacting moratoria against these new regulations and directives, access to health care for millions of low-income families, older adults and disabled persons will be in jeopardy.

Serious Mental Illness:  Mental Health Parity legislation would require insurers to offer mental health benefits comparable to standard medical coverage.  The Senate passed this bill in 2007 and the three House committees of jurisdiction have all moved bills forward.  Senate and House negotiators are already in conversation about a bill that could pass both chambers.

Indian Health Care:  The Indian Health Care Improvement Act has not been reauthorized for sixteen years, but is seeing action this year.  The House passed this bill in 2007, and the Senate has promised to act in early 2008.

Environment

Climate Change and Poverty:  For years, bills to create a national cap-and-trade system on carbon emissions have stalled in congressional committees.  This year, however, Senators Warner (R-Va.) and Lieberman (I-Conn.) have introduced a climate change bill that may actually see consideration by the full Senate.  Because those living in poverty in the United States and around the world feel the effects of climate change most severely, this bill has provisions that mitigate the impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities worldwide.
 
While this bill is not perfect, it is the first time that a climate change bill has gotten out of a congressional committee with a real chance to reduce U.S. contributions to catastrophic global climate change.

Energy:  Congress has been providing tax credits for renewable and efficient energy production for years, but only at one- and two-year intervals.  Many of the current tax credits will expire this year if Congress takes no action to extend them.  Both chambers of Congress have named this as a priority for 2008.

Public Lands:  In June 2000, the National Landscape Conservation System (NLCS) was established to administer more than 26 million acres of public lands, including national monuments, conservation areas, wilderness, scenic rivers and national and scenic trails. 

This system, however, has no congressional recognition, even though recent Presidents of both parties have supported its creation and implementation. HR 2016 provides overdue recognition and empowerment.  House committee work on this bill is projected for sometime in the spring with action by the full House later in the year.

Mining Reform:  The 1872 Mining Law is in dire need of an update.  The Hardrock Mining and Reclamation Act of 2007, passed by the House last year, would provide that, if the Senate acts on it.  The bill, HR 2262, includes protections for the environment, local communities and taxpayers.  Current law externalizes the heavy costs of mineral extraction onto local communities and ecosystems.

Immigration, education and civil and religious liberties

By Mary Anderson Cooper, Consultant

Immigration Reform

Because Congress seems unable to act on immigration reform and the federal government is reluctant to enforce laws already on the books, the making of immigration policy could soon fall to the Supreme Court.

In 1986, Congress — after a protracted struggle — approved the Simpson-Mazzoli Act, which was intended to settle the debate over undocumented workers in the United States.  It set fines and penalties (some with prison sentences) for employers who knowingly hired workers who were in the United States illegally.  It also granted legal status (or amnesty) to millions of workers already in the country and created a program intended to ensure that American food growers had an abundant labor supply. 

When the law was enacted, there were about three million people in the United States illegally.  Successive Administrations failed to enforce the law vigorously, and the number is now estimated at over 12 million, more than half coming from Mexico.

Two decades ago undocumented workers lived almost entirely in Texas, Florida, California and New York.  Now, quadrupled in number, they and their families live in every state, often in ethnic clusters within communities.  Employers in food service, the hospitality industry, construction and food service are eager to employ them for lower wages than they would have to offer legal residents, while cities and states face increased demands on their funds to provide health care, education and social services to poor immigrant families.

Article I of the U.S. Constitution empowers Congress “to establish a uniform rule of Naturalization” and to write laws to enforce it as the supreme law of the land.  Given Executive Branch failure to implement the laws Congress has written, several states and localities are making their own immigration laws.  Often the provisions vary so much that employers with workers in several places, such as those operating retail or food service chains, are doing things in one state that are illegal in another.  Some of these conflicts are now being tested in federal courts.  Ultimately, the Supreme Court will take one or more of these cases on appeal, which could result in redefining the roles of Congress, the Executive Branch and state and local governments with regard to immigration issues.

Education

DREAM Act:  S 2205, The Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act, would allow states to charge in-state college tuition to immigrant young people who live within their borders or have served in the military.  Despite having majority support in the Senate, the bill is blocked by a filibuster.  President Bush opposes the measure, and it is being misinterpreted in the presidential campaign, making any action this year unlikely.

No Child Left Behind (NCLB):  President Bush wants this controversial measure to be a major part of his legacy, but Congress has so far refused to reauthorize the law in the form Mr. Bush wants.  Now the White House is trying to find ways to get around Congress to change the law by administrative fiat, including some of the same issues that caused the reauthorization to fail in Congress last year. 

Observers believe that the Administration will attempt to change regulations in order to award merit pay for teachers, spend more on private tutors, expand testing to high school students and allow states to ignore labor agreements to move teachers to the schools that perform most poorly.  The law allows the U.S. Department of Education considerable latitude to do such things. 

Top Democrats responsible for education legislation, Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.), will propose reauthorization legislation that would direct the emphasis away from standardized testing, a favorite provision of the Bush Administration.  Kennedy and Miller supported NCLB and worked with Mr. Bush to get it passed, but now feel it needs major improvement.  Many in Congress oppose letting this Administration unilaterally change the law, fearing the next Administration will be handicapped in improving the program because it is difficult for states to keep changing the rules.

Homeland Security

Electronic Surveillance:  The controversial Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) has expired, after the sort of procedural ballet that makes the public cynical about Congress.  The legislation was scheduled to expire on February 16, 2008.  A few days before that, the Senate reauthorized it for six years. 

The House leadership balked at being presented with the Senate bill at the last minute and put under pressure to pass it without review and so proposed a three-week extension of the current program to allow time to resolve differences with the Senate.  Republicans blocked passage of the extension, and the House left town for the President’s Day recess, thus missing the deadline and allowing FISA to expire. President Bush denounced the House action, claiming that it had destroyed “our ability to find out who the terrorists are talking to, what they are saying and what they are planning.” 

The bill would have made new rules for electronic surveillance used to gather foreign intelligence about communications that originate in the United States.  The Senate measure established a secret court to approve procedures for surveillance, while the House bill added safeguards including court and congressional oversight to protect the civil liberties of U.S. citizens.  Another contentious issue involved the legal status of telecommunications companies being sued for participating with the government in warrantless surveillance activities.  The Senate bill provided retroactive immunity to those companies but the House version did not.  The President favors immunity.

Other Issues

The pressure of other issues and the slow start Congress has gotten on its legislative agenda to date make action unlikely on issues related to hate crimes, criminal justice, voting rights or reproductive rights. 

International Issues and Peace

by Catherine Gordon

Iraq: This year Congress will continue to focus on the funding of the war.  With the November elections coming up and the perceived advantage Democrats have over Republicans regarding the war, they will likely continue to challenge the Administration over the funding.  However, the Democrats are in the same situation they were in 2007 and do not have the votes needed to cut funding or to pass legislation to set a timetable to bring the troops home.  Most likely, there will be continued funding with some legislation on reporting requirements and permanent bases.   If the U.S. economy continues in its downturn, there may be more strenuous objections by the public to spending another $100-200 billion in Iraq. 

Congress may also challenge the agreement between the Administration and the Iraqi government, called the Declaration of Principles that was signed in November 2007.  This agreement lays out a plan for permanent U.S. bases in Iraq but is not final yet and must be finalized by July 2008.  It could take several different legal forms.  Congress could have a say in shaping the agreement.

Torture and Habeas Corpus: Legislation on Habeas Corpus for detainees and overturning the Military Commissions Act is on hold until the Supreme Court rules in the cases of several detainees arguing for habeas corpus rights and a fair trial.  These cases should be ruled on sometime in the summer of 2008.  There are two major measures — the Habeas bills (HR 2826/S185) and the Restoring the Constitution Act (HR 1415/S 576.)

At the time of writing the President plans to veto the Intelligence Authorization Conference report which included section 327, prohibiting all U.S. intelligence agencies from engaging in torture or other harsh interrogation techniques.

Israel/Palestine: The outlook for the peace process in 2008 is not promising.  The violence and humanitarian crisis in Gaza is derailing the process and some analysts warn that Gaza is the most likely trigger for the next Arab-Israeli war.  Because of the situation in Gaza and little movement on the ground toward creating a viable Palestinian state, the Arab League is threatening to rescind its proposal of 2002 offering full recognition of Israel in return for the creation of the Palestinian state.  Urgent efforts must be made for a ceasefire.  Failure to do so will only bolster those who support violence. 

Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Central America: In the coming year, there will need to be efforts to stop the remilitarization of aid to Colombia.  The Administration’s 2009 foreign aid request includes an escalation in funding for military aid to Colombia with a sharp decrease in economic and social aid.  Military and police aid will increase from $444 to $539 million while economic assistance will fall from $236 to $145 million.  In October 2007 Mr. Bush announced “Plan Merida” an anti-drug initiative for Mexico and Central America.  He has now requested $550 million for fiscal year 2009.  Most of the funding will go toward military and police aid. 

The recent announcement by Fidel Castro that he will step down as leader of the country augurs big changes in Cuba.  However, little alteration is expected in U.S. policy toward Cuba until after the Presidential election.

Trade Agreements: The Administration is ramping up its efforts for congressional approval of three free trade agreements that have already been negotiated under fast-track authority — Colombia, Panama and South Korea.  The presidential candidates and many in Congress are calling for a “time out” on passage of any more trade agreements.  Pro-trade forces are warning that failure to ratify these agreements could harm the U.S. economy.  No trade agreement has ever been voted down once it has come to a vote in Congress.

The Colombia free trade agreement will most likely be the first to come up for a vote.  The Administration has already sponsored six congressional delegations to Colombia in order to gain support for the agreement, with five more scheduled in the coming year.

Debt Relief:  The Jubilee Act was introduced in both the House and the Senate last year and has a strong chance of passing in the coming year.  It is gaining bi-partisan support in both bodies and would lead to the 100 percent cancellation of the debt of 67 impoverished countries.  Getting rid of the huge debt burden of these countries will be a major step forward in supporting sustained development.

Sudan:  In 2005, the United States brokered the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between northern and southern Sudan.  This agreement declared that there would be an internationally monitored election in Sudan in 2009.  In 2008 it will be determined if it is realistic to try to hold these elections.  The possibility seems to be decreasing with the horrible violence in Darfur and serious problems emerging in the North-South peace agreement.  There are few signs that the current leadership of Sudan’s government intends to give up power.  It will most likely attempt to delay the elections for as long as possible.