by Lisa Haugaard

In 2005, the Bush Administration will deepen U.S. involvement in the Colombian conflict, and continue its hard-edged Cuba policy.  However, the Administration is likely to avoid conflict with the many Latin America center-left governments currently in power. Gradually increasing military aid and training to the region while cutting back on social aid is a disturbing, persistent trend. 

Odd Man Out

Mr. Bush is "odd man out" among the center-left presidents currently governing much of South America.  The gap between Mr. Bush and the continent's leaders was symbolized by the tensions during the President's brief Latin America trip to attend the Pacific summit in Chile, where Chilean President Ricardo Lagos cancelled a state dinner, ostensibly over disagreements about the size of the U.S. security force.  Center-left governments preside over Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and Ecuador.  Hugo Chavez maintains his popularity, despite strong opposition to his personalistic rule, in Venezuela.  Carlos Mesa in Bolivia must tread carefully with strong popular movements, since their protests-over natural resource decisions and killings of protesters by the security forces-led to the resignation of the previous president. 

At another moment in history this center-left resurgence in Latin America could lead to a strong diplomatic and then military reaction from the U.S. Mounting tensions are still a possibility. 

Yet three factors exist that make escalating U.S-Latin American tensions, apart from Cuba, unlikely. 

• First, the Iraq war and continued tensions with Iran and North Korea suggest that even the combative Bush Administration would be unlikely to take on a new challenge. 
• Second, the leftist Latin American presidents have, by and large, proved to be moderate pragmatists.  Only Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is more confrontational in rhetorical terms towards the United States, but the ratification of his popularity in the 2004 recall referendum, deemed fair by international observers, make it more difficult for the Bush Administration to call his legitimacy into question. 
• Third, the conflict in  Colombia provides more than enough focus for the Bush Administration's military programs in Latin America. 

Deepening Involvement in Colombia

Mr. Bush's quick stopover in Colombia on his return from Chile — on an island outside the historic port city of Cartagena, one of Colombia' s most secure places — indicates his strong support for conservative leader Alvaro Uribe. 

President Bush will have to make the case this year for why Plan Colombia, the United States' massive, largely military aid package, should be renewed. Sold to the Congress as a five-year, one-time deal, the Administration will argue that the plan needs to be extended. They will present statistics showing a drop in the number of acres planted in drug crops in Colombia, while sweeping under the rug the statistics that show that the price and availability of cocaine remains virtually constant in the United States. 

The Bush Administration will also portray Uribe as a strong ally in the war against terror, depicting Colombia's decades-old conflict as another front in the U.S. campaign against terrorism.  The President is likely to ask Congress to renew the more than $700 million dollar package to Colombia and the Andean region that it has sent each year since 2000.

U.S. involvement in the Colombian conflict in 2005 will inevitably deepen with the passage of legislation that doubles the number of U.S.  troops permitted (to 800), along with 600 civilian contractors.  Since the U.S. troops are advisors, this represents an enormous investment in training and guiding Colombia' s army.  The continued human rights violations, threats against human rights defenders and union leaders, and linkages between the army and right-wing paramilitary forces in the very area where the United States has a maximum presence-Arauca province, the location of the oil pipeline-is a source of great concern.

The Colombian government has begun a demobilization process for a part of the paramilitary forces.  However, the demobilization is taking place before the Colombian Congress has approved legislation providing for a measure of truth and justice.  The United States is beginning to fund this demobilization, and it is questionable how much the U.S. Embassy will push to ensure that those leaders involved in massacres and major drug trafficking are prosecuted.

Many members of the U.S. Congress have continued to be concerned about the human rights record of the Colombian military; this, and the process of paramilitary demobilization, will continue to be a controversial focus of debate throughout the year. 

Cuba

The Bush Administration has shown no signs of softening its hard-edged Cuba policy.  The latest toughening of the travel restrictions, however, fell hardest on Cuban-Americans, who are now limited to one trip every three years to the island — and their travel is restricted even if their mother falls ill or dies, for example.  Academic programs have also been hit hard by tightened restrictions, which have ended many academic exchanges, forbidden editing of Cuban manuscripts and denied Cuban scholars visas to scholarly conferences.  These irrational restrictions are causing a backlash and will ensure a strong challenge this coming year by both members of Congress and the public. 

Immigration

One of the few areas affecting Latin America where the Bush Administration has announced an interest in exploring new solutions is immigration.  President Bush has stated his interest in providing some path to legalization for illegal immigrants, although he is not expected to back any kind of comprehensive immigration reform.  However, he is opposed by a number of members of his own party, who have been increasingly vocal in opposition to even minor steps towards immigration reform.  

Members of Congress tried to place provisions cracking down on illegal immigration — for example, by denying driver's licenses to illegal immigrants — on the 9/11 intelligence reform bill. While Congress failed to include many of these provisions, the debate over immigration and border policy is likely to be intense in 2005. Citizens' groups are likely to increasingly raise the humanitarian impact of tightened border policies on migrants, visualizing the many people killed each year attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border.   

CAFTA and AFTA  

The Central American Free Trade Agreement, already negotiated, was postponed for congressional action until after the November 2004 elections, given how unpopular a "yes" vote on CAFTA would be in certain congressional districts.  Now, however, it is likely CAFTA will be brought to a vote.  The Andean Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) is still being finalized and could be presented to the U.S. Congress this fall.

CAFTA is controversial not just because of the potential impact of the remaining textile jobs in the United States, but also because of the poor record of labor law compliance in Central America and concerns that its provisions will undermine small farmers in the region. AFTA is particularly controversial because Colombia leads the world in assassination of trade unionists, and unions will be questioning the rationale for signing an agreement where freedom of assembly is threatened through violence.  Though it is absent from debate, the potential impact of AFTA leading to renewed planting of drug crops-due to increased competition affecting small farmers' legal crops-should be a subject for discussion. 

Military vs. Development Aid

Another disturbing trend is the U.S. military's increasing efforts to expand the role of Latin American militaries. Despite the lessons of history — in which Latin American militaries with poorly defined roles instigated coups, conducted repression, and undermined the stability of governments — the United States continues to encourage Latin American militaries to be involved in public security efforts, tasks that should largely be left to the police.  Also disturbing is the gradual drift upward in U.S. military aid and training to almost all countries in the region.

At the same time as military aid gradually increases, development assistance has suffered cuts.  Latin America does not benefit substantially from the Bush Administration's most heralded new aid programs, the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and the President's HIV/AIDs initiative. Only three countries from Latin America are even being considered for the MCA program, and not even those three will all be included.  As the Bush Administration announces a tighter budget for next year, Latin America development assistance remains a vulnerable, easily "raidable" account. 

Conclusion

Latin America is hardly at the top of the Bush Administration's agenda. However, the Bush Administration's single-minded focus on the war on terror, leading to deepened involvement in the Colombian conflict and justifying increasing military aid to the region, will have a strong impact on the continent.